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The Obama Effect

Lately I’ve been thinking about Obama’s Philadelphia speech. In that speech, he got me to think about the color of my skin in ways I never had before.

It afforded me a new paradigm, a new way of thinking about my place in society. It also gave me the best insight into his problem solving skills. Jeremiah Wright was the problem, the Philadelphia speech was the solution.

I’m convinced McCain made the same mistake Hillary made. He didn’t take Obama seriously until it was almost too late. If you’ve watched McCain on the stump over the past few days, he’s clearly taking him seriously now.

When he rolled out the Paris Hilton ad several months ago, I told friends at the time it was a mistake. My reasoning was simple. He was going to have to face Obama during the debates and people would see for themselves that Obama isn’t an empty suit. What was he going to do then?

Then he spent a week assaulting Obama about “Lipstick on a pig.” I watched in horror as the press justified its coverage of this nonstory. But more to the point, it went to my objection to the entire approach. It lacked seriousness.

One might argue that the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was the penultimate example of the McCain’s refusal to take this election seriously. But it may have simply been a mistake. It’s interesting to consider that the only two women ever to make it on the ticket of a major party, were unable to convince the public they were up to the job. In 1984 it was Geraldine Ferraro, in 2008, Sarah Palin.

Obama seems to have an uncanny ability to get his opponents to underestimate him. That’s at least one “Obama effect” but there are others. I mentioned above the effect he’s had on me.

One of my readers sent me a photo array of a group of supporters called “Rednecks for Obama.” In my previous post, I mentioned another group known as “Racists for Obama.” Obama supporters have reported encounters with “Racists for Obama” while canvassing. They even have their own acronym – C.H.A.N.G.E. (Come Help a N*gger Get Elected). They throw around the N word with abandon when talking to canvassers, but insist they fully intend to vote for Obama on Election Day.

Professional pollsters have taken an acute interest in “Racists for Obama.” They estimate that some 23% of voters with “negative views of African Americans” will pull the lever for Obama. Personally, I have mixed feelings about it. But considering that McCain’s chief pollster, Bill McInturff, all but declared that he’s counting on these voters on Election Day, I’d just as soon they voted for Obama.

We mustn’t confuse “Rednecks for Obama” with “Racists for Obama.” The photos I have show Rednecks for Obama wearing T-Shirts, wielding banners and shaking Obama’s hand at rallies, smiling all the while. Obviously, a redneck ain’t necessarily a racist.

There’s been much discussion of something called “the reverse Bradley effect.” Tom Bradley was the African American former Mayor of Los Angeles who was 7 points up in the polls in California, only to lose a tight race to his white opponent, George Deukmejian. This led to speculation that many whites simply lied to pollsters.

Conservative Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker cites a number of “mostly white-collar men and women who speak republican in public” but who tell her privately that they will vote for Obama. But as we’ve seen, there are lots of blue collar workers poised to do exactly the same thing; some privately, others not so privately. I call it the Obama Effect. It means different things in different circumstances, but it all seems to be adding up to the same thing. Change.

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